Will innovation improve us?

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Over the past year, Apple’s share price

AAPL
outperformed Bitcoin, and Tesla

TSLA
The share price, which until now has been umbilically linked to bitcoin, has been much more volatile (over the past two years it has had 29 one-day moves of over 10% versus 17 for bitcoin. ).

This information raises many questions, about how the market works, investor appetites and simply, if bitcoin is now old and boring. There is a debate that instead of being a risky asset across the spectrum of major asset classes (bonds, stocks, etc.), bitcoin is simply a safe asset in a very volatile crypto world, although bitcoin has fallen 15% since I started writing this nod to the first one.

More importantly, it may be that bitcoin is going out of fashion and being replaced in the minds of investors by other rapid innovations. Remember the memorable line from a Davos speech by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau where he said: “The pace of change has never been faster, but it will never be so slow again”.

Exponential

The spirit of this phrase is captured by the predictions of futurologists, economists and thinkers for many years to come. Having made my own predictions before Christmas, I have the benefit of sitting down and reading the others, a prime example being Azeem Azar’s weekly “Exponential” email, and a growing number of other notes. who try to summarize what is bubbling.

What is notable is that there is a strong sense of the ‘Roaring Twenties’ in the strands of structural trends that analysts see unfolding in the aftermath of a pandemic. Chief among them is the emphasis on nuclear power as a substitute for fossil fuels, not to mention the whole complex of green technologies.

If the forecasts and thoughts I have mentioned are a good representation of where capital is going, then an exciting new infrastructure is being built – in IT, logistics and finance to name just a few sectors that are emerging. found to be united by the intensity of the data. I could say that having witnessed the dot.com bubble, the only value of an asset bubble is that it leaves behind an important infrastructure (telecoms in this case).

MetaVerse

My three key takeaways from analyzing many reports are that, while exciting, the central message of emerging new technologies is that they will lead to a historic and potentially overwhelming challenge for humanity, and in particular for our minds. and our sociability, with potentially high impact health benefits.

Without exaggerating, I think 2022 is a threshold year when innovative technologies make our bodies healthier but invade our mental spaces.

To start with gathering the most popular trends, they cluster around Web 3.0, NFTs, Metaverse, Social Media, and Cryptocurrencies. In a brutal way, this means we’ll all be spending more time in the dark, hunched over phones and wondering if the people and things we’ve encountered in the Metaverse are real and if it’s worth it. worth investing 10,000 USD in a metaverse. apartment.

This trend is historic because for the first time, and with only the strength of religion (and perhaps politics) as a rival, humans will spend time and enjoy experiences in an unreal world, and for some, this will happen. will eventually dominate their existence. Two very obvious side effects will be sociability and sanity.

Quantum

In previous newsletters, I have pointed out that mental health needs to become a central pillar of how health services are reinvented, and the metaverse may be the trigger (ironically, it is used to help soldiers. to overcome post-traumatic stress disorder).

On the plus side, too, the huge advancements in medicine and health technology – largely spurred by the coronavirus crisis, will have a positive effect on humans – pending at least two factors, the generosity of these advancements may be as widely used as possible, and that the modalities of their delivery be rethought in the sense that health systems must change.

An inspiration here, and my second point, is that the growing attention that technologies like blockchain have paid to decentralized, autonomous organizations – in fact organizations run by coded relationships between disparate parties, as opposed to a centralized bureaucracy or same hierarchical (i.e. health systems). While it is far-fetched to imagine that today’s healthcare systems and other institutional arrangements can be quickly replaced by decentralized forms, blockchain can do a lot to reduce these bureaucracies (closer relationships between physicians , patients, billing and others like pharmacists).

DAO

A third threshold change related to technological influence that receives a lot of attention and capital, quantum computing (70% of startup-level investment in technological hardware goes to quantum computing projects). Governments, especially China and the European Union, are also spending a lot of money on it. In short, quantum computing is revolutionary in that it uses different arrangements of “bits” to produce more powerful processing. While there aren’t many applications of quantum computing yet, it has the ability to drastically change aspects of healthcare, finance, and industry like chemicals.

Having already seen some positive historical changes resulting from the pandemic – the general patience and obedience of the world’s population, the acceptance of working from home and the potency of vaccines, we are now crossing a threshold in terms of how technology will change. our bodies, as well as our minds and our relationships with the world.

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